OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has released a rare article on his personal website, thoroughly outlining his vision of an AI-driven future, which he terms the "Era of Intelligence." Altman emphasizes that "deep learning" has proven its effectiveness, demonstrating the capacity to generalize across multiple fields and complex problem sets based on training data, thereby aiding humanity in addressing significant challenges such as climate restoration, space colonization, and breakthroughs in physics.
He points out that scientists have discovered an algorithm capable of genuinely learning any data distribution (or the "rules" that generate such data), and as computing power and data volumes increase, the accuracy of problem-solving will significantly improve. Altman believes that this groundbreaking discovery has profound implications, but even with deep contemplation, its full significance is difficult to grasp.
Significantly, Altman forecasts that superintelligence—AI systems that vastly surpass human intelligence—could be realized within "several thousand days," a timeline that is considerably ahead of the majority of experts' five-year predictions. He underscores that this development could be one of the most influential events in history to date, and although the exact timeframe might be extended, he remains confident in the attainment of superintelligent AI.
Although AI models have performed admirably in IQ tests and knowledge-based assessments, they have not yet surpassed human levels. Currently, the primary application of generative AI remains as an aid to human work, rather than as autonomous superintelligent entities capable of independently solving complex problems.
Altman anticipates that in the coming years, AI assistants and agents will become widely adopted, with individuals having their own personal AI teams comprising virtual experts across various fields, and children receiving customized academic tutoring. However, he concedes that achieving this goal faces several challenges, including reducing computing costs and increasing the availability of advanced chips. He cautions that without strengthening the infrastructure supporting AI development, artificial intelligence could become a scarce resource, leading to competition and primarily serving affluent segments of society.
Altman does not overlook the potential negative repercussions of AI, especially regarding job displacement. He believes that artificial intelligence will transform the labor market, creating a balance of advantages and disadvantages, yet maintains that humans will always have tasks that require completion.
Although Altman's article does not explicitly mention OpenAI's official stance, given his role as the company's CEO and OpenAI's recent breakthroughs in AI technology—such as the release of the powerful o1 model—the article is regarded as a profound insight into the future development of artificial intelligence. Additionally, reports indicate that OpenAI is seeking a new round of funding with an estimated valuation of up to $15 billion, adding further context to Altman's remarks.
