Microsoft doesn't actually need OpenAI, what it wants is AGI.

2023-11-22

According to OpenAI, Microsoft will not have exclusive rights to use OpenAI's post-AGI models. Seizing the opportunity at the right time, Microsoft's Chairman and CEO, Satya Nadella, quickly brought Sam Altman into Microsoft. Altman will join forces with former OpenAI President Greg Brockman and some of the struggling researchers at the company, including Jakub Pachocki, the head of GPT-4. Bringing Altman and his team into Microsoft may be the biggest gamble Nadella has made in his nearly ten years as CEO, even bigger than the billions of dollars invested in OpenAI. However, as the situation unfolds, Altman may return to OpenAI. Reports suggest that while Altman and Microsoft announced this news, Altman's future with Microsoft is not set in stone. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Nadella stated that he will continue to support Altman and his team, regardless of where Altman ends up. However, for Microsoft, having Altman and his team at Microsoft instead of OpenAI makes more sense. The fate of this startup is still uncertain, even with their new CEO, Emmett Shear. On the other hand, Nadella wants to bring as many people from OpenAI as possible into Microsoft's new AI team led by Altman. Ultimate Goal OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a non-profit organization focused on achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). As stated in their blog, their mission has always been to "build safe and beneficial AGI for all of humanity." However, interestingly, according to OpenAI, Microsoft will not have exclusive rights to use OpenAI's post-AGI models. Due to their $13 billion investment in the company, Microsoft currently has exclusive rights to use their models, such as GPT-4 and GPT-4 turbo. Once AGI emerges, whether in the form of GPT-5, GPT-6, or a completely new model, Microsoft will not have exclusive rights to utilize this technology. Considering Microsoft's profit-driven nature, they would want exclusive access to the technology and seek opportunities for monetization regardless of the source. "The fact is that the internal lab led by Sam and Greg may be better for Microsoft, given the terms around AGI," said Gavin Baker, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Atreides Management. Even if Microsoft successfully acquires this cutting-edge technology from OpenAI, there will be equity limits within the profit structure. These restrictions aim to strike a balance between commercial goals and considerations of safety and sustainability, rather than solely pursuing maximum profit. Achieving AGI at Microsoft However, if Altman and his top-tier team collaborate within a carefully selected team at Microsoft, Altman may achieve AGI at Microsoft instead of OpenAI. This possibility would grant Microsoft exclusive rights to use this technology, providing them with an opportunity for maximum monetization—a disturbing but possible prospect. This may also be another reason why Nadella quickly brought Altman and Brockman into Microsoft after negotiations with the OpenAI board reached a deadlock. After all, it was Altman who unveiled ChatGPT to the world almost a year ago, triggering the explosion of generative AI. "Coming to Microsoft to achieve AGI" may be the exact phrase Nadella expressed when inviting Altman. So far, besides Altman, Brockman, and Pachocki, Aleksander Madry and Szymon Sidor have agreed to join Altman's new AI group, both of whom previously worked at OpenAI. Brockman also optimistically announced on X that they will build something new, and it will be amazing. So far, we don't know much about this newly formed team led by Altman, except that it will be a new advanced research team, possibly focused on AGI tasks. It will be interesting to see how their work aligns with OpenAI's. Microsoft Doesn't Actually Need OpenAI "OpenAI is nothing without its talent," almost all OpenAI employees posted synchronously on X, expressing support for those who left the company. Additionally, almost everyone threatened to resign. Given this turmoil, it is reported that many other AI companies are trying to poach OpenAI employees. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff also posted on X, stating, "Salesforce will welcome any OpenAI researchers who have submitted their resignations to immediately join our Salesforce Einstein Trusted AI research team." Tammy Madsen, a management professor at Santa Clara University's Leavey School of Business, said, "Those talents are the crown jewels of an organization." With Altman joining, Microsoft would hope to acquire more talent from OpenAI and continue pursuing AGI within Microsoft. Brockman also announced on X that this will inspire more people to follow their choices. Although this is a possible scenario, it is still uncertain, and we have yet to see how the whole situation unfolds. However, Nadella has already stated that Microsoft remains committed to collaborating with OpenAI. He posted on X, saying, "We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and the new leadership team at OpenAI and working with them." Currently, Microsoft heavily relies on OpenAI's models, such as GPT-4, and will continue to need them until Altman's AI team creates newer and better models. Furthermore, the details of the agreement between Microsoft and OpenAI have not been made public. Interestingly, Altman's new AI team may be researching exactly what OpenAI is doing. If Altman's team achieves AGI in the future, Microsoft may no longer need OpenAI. Moreover, the duration of Microsoft's ongoing financial support for OpenAI and the potential strategic shift in significant personnel changes bring great uncertainty. Especially if the OpenAI board resigns and Altman is reappointed as CEO, the landscape may undergo significant changes once again.