Recently, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, adjusted his expectations for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) at the New York Times DealBook summit. He stated that while AGI might be realized sooner than many anticipate, its significance could be considerably less than expected.

Altman highlighted that the emergence of AGI won't instantly trigger significant societal transformations. Instead, he anticipates that in the years following the initial realization of AGI, there may be no substantial changes to the global economy and societal operations. He explained that society tends to be resistant to change, and adapting to new technologies requires time. Consequently, although AGI could enhance efficiency in certain sectors, widespread economic disruption and transformation is likely to take longer.

Altman also mentioned that some of the past safety concerns expressed by OpenAI and others regarding AGI may not become evident immediately upon its initial development. He believes there is a lengthy transition period between AGI and the so-called "superintelligence." Superintelligence refers to AI systems that far surpass current technological capabilities, possessing greater autonomy and more extensive abilities.

This statement from Altman is not unprecedented. Previously, OpenAI's charter outlined the goal of developing AGI capable of "automating the vast majority of intellectual tasks." However, over time, Altman and OpenAI seem to have adjusted their expectations for AGI. They now place greater emphasis on the transition from AGI to superintelligence rather than on the immediate impacts of AGI itself.

Furthermore, Altman noted that OpenAI's business dealings with Microsoft could significantly influence the company's future trajectory. Breaking free from profit-sharing agreements with Microsoft would mark a crucial milestone for OpenAI in becoming the next major for-profit tech company. However, according to Altman, this shift might not result in the profound transformations for ordinary users and society that were initially anticipated with the advent of AGI.

In summary, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently revised his expectations for AGI at a recent summit. He believes that although AGI may be realized sooner than expected, its impact on society and the economy will unfold gradually rather than causing immediate, sweeping changes. Additionally, he emphasized the extensive transition period between AGI and superintelligence.